While OPEC leader Saudi Arabia will pick up the slack, Morgan Stanley believes oil markets will be undersupplied by around 600,000 in the second half of 2018.
The contract on Friday touched a high of $74.46, which was the highest since November 2014, rallying on concerns that US sanctions against Iran would remove a substantial volume of crude oil from world markets at a time of rising global demand.
The spike was the latest fallout from the Trump administration's decision to abandon the landmark Iran nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions on Iran - a move that has strained relations between the United States and other world powers that support the deal.
London Brent crude fell 55 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $78.68, after gaining more than 5 percent last week.
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Donald Trump is urging oil producing countries except Iran to boost output.
Meanwhile, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih discussed the oil market developments with his Russian counterpart Alexandr Novak, and both agreed to continue close coordination in the interest of producers, consumers and the global economy, according to a statement by the Saudi Energy Ministry on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark for the price of oil, was up 1.51 percent to $75.06 per barrel, its highest level since November 2014. "The Iranian government has a plan". "If production increases as we now forecast, a large share of this would be eroded, leaving the global oil market with a limited "margin of safety", said Morgan Stanley's Rat.
"OPEC is manipulating, and you know they allowed (a production increase) less than we thought last week".
Iran possesses the second-largest gas reserves on the planet, after Russian Federation, and the fourth-largest oil supplies, while Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest oil exporter.
He tweeted the Kingdom could pump "maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels", presumably meaning barrels a day. Trump has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum in response to what he calls unfair trade practices from Europe, Canada, and other allies around the world, who have responded with retaliatory sanctions in kind. "We want to work with these countries to build a strong global effort", he said.