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Russian Federation is pumping oil at a post-Soviet high, US crude output has topped 11 million barrels a day and a Reuters survey of OPEC production shows the group more than made up for any declines in Iranian shipments in October.

Both benchmarks were about $10 a barrel below four-year highs reached on October 3.

Crude futures traded choppily on Wednesday, with Brent rising by $1 a barrel earlier in the session before retreating.

Still, crude futures are more than $10 below four-year highs reached on October 3 and on track for their worst monthly performance since July 2016. Also stoking the bearish mood were expectations of a build in USA crude oil inventories. December futures were down about 13% for the month as of Tuesday's settlement. Both stock markets and crude futures jumped in early October before selling off sharply. "This is the highest correlation I've seen in quite some time".

Oil prices reversed earlier losses on Friday as hopes rose that the USA and China may resolve their trade disputes soon, easing concerns that an economic slowdown may weigh on fuel demand.

"As we drop down we see additional liquidation from speculators, and that keeps things heading south", said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates. Oil companies boosted shale drilling in Texas, Colorado and other states in response to a 48 percent rally in prices.

But there's another similarity between July 2016 and October 2018. -China trade war, Reuters reported.

High oil prices are hurting consumers and could dent demand, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday.

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Almost 40 years after the 1979 Islamic revolution saw the exit of Western oil companies from Iran, the Iranian oil sector faces yet another costly disruption after a series of interruptions from war, sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

But in the last month, forecasters have warned that oil demand will grow more slowly than anticipated in the coming months.

With Iranian sanctions on the horizon, oil production has been increasingly significantly in recent months from the world's top producers.

"Right now, from a crude oil perspective, the market is well supplied".

In 2012, when a first round of global nuclear sanctions was imposed, Iran's output was only a third of Saudi Arabia's, rising to 41 percent previous year and just a little higher than Iraq's.

She wrote, "Not only will the exemptions keep some important USA allies happy, but by keeping more Iranian oil on the market than previously expected, the administration helps prevent oil prices from rising too high, so American consumers do not suffer from price shock".

A list of all countries getting USA waivers allowing them to import Iranian oil is expected to be released officially on Monday, industry sources say. Brent was up 29 percent over the same period. They fell 1.8% on Tuesday, at one point touching their lowest since Aug 24 at US$75.09 a barrel. More than 750 million contracts changed hands, exceeding the 200-day moving average of 576 million contracts a day.

"In theory, we could have been in a bullish market because of sanctions against Iran". Of the eight countries, six will import at "greatly reduced levels", while the other two are at or near zero, but were getting a waiver to give them "flexibility and time" to end their dependence on Iranian oil imports.


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